{"id":1929,"date":"2010-02-10T09:40:43","date_gmt":"2010-02-10T09:40:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/archive.iask.hu\/?p=1929"},"modified":"2017-12-08T09:41:17","modified_gmt":"2017-12-08T09:41:17","slug":"situation-relative-free-will-interview-immanuel-wallerstein","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/archive.iask.hu\/en\/we-are-in-the-situation-of-relative-free-will-an-interview-with-immanuel-wallerstein\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cWE ARE IN THE SITUATION OF RELATIVE FREE WILL\u201d An Interview with Immanuel Wallerstein"},"content":{"rendered":"

We are sitting here almost 30 years after our first interview in 1981 in Budapest and\u00a0<\/strong>it seems to me that most of your predictions and analyses concerning the change in\u00a0<\/strong>the upcoming world system proved to be right. You forecasted that the world system\u00a0<\/strong>is in a transition phase which would take several decades. In one of your books you\u00a0<\/strong>suggested this would take place between 1945 and 2025. Elsewhere you talk about a\u00a0<\/strong>longer period of transformation. We are getting closer to 2025, even if we take it as a\u00a0<\/strong>metaphor. Where are we now? Are we really heading towards a new system or further\u00a0<\/strong>into chaos and disruption?<\/strong><\/p>\n

We are further into chaos and heading towards a new system, but the date I usually\u00a0use these days is 2050 as the likely point when things will settle down into a new\u00a0system. But we are definitely into chaos and have been for a while and this becomes
\nmore and more visible all the time. That is to say, the chaos has been there\u00a0for a while, but now people are noticing the chaos. That\u2019s the difference.<\/p>\n

Do you see any light at the end of the tunnel? What are the positive perspectives?\u00a0People everywhere in the world are very interested in alternatives, also in Hungary.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The basic analytic model is on the side of complexity. The argument is that systems,\u00a0all systems of any kind, at some point always move away from equilibrium,\u00a0but there are structures within the system that keep moving back to equilibrium.\u00a0When a system moves further and further away from equilibrium and reaches a\u00a0point where the structures that bring it back to equlibrium are no longer sufficiently\u00a0strong, the system begins to fluctuate enormously and there is what we call a bifurcation. Technically a bifurcation, in terms of what a chemist or physicist means, is a situation in which for a given equation there are two possible solutions\u00a0which is not normally the case; but if you translate that into social science language, a bifurcation means that there are two alternative outcomes to the chaotic situation. There is a struggle, a social struggle as to which outcome will prevail. So there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but it depends on what you mean by light. If you mean by light \u201corder\u201d it is clear a new order will emerge out of this\u00a0chaos. The question is which order and whose order and there are two alternatives.\u00a0I think of these two alternatives as a better one and a worse one when looking at\u00a0the current situation. That is to say, sometimes I have used lately the language of\u00a0the \u201cSpirit of Davos\u201d, vis-\u00e0-vis the \u201cSpirit of Porto Allegre\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Spirit of Davos\u201d is to replace the present capitalist system with another\u00a0system \u201cX\u201d which shares some crucial features with the capitalist system. That is,\u00a0it would be like the capitalist system, hierarchical, exploitative, and polarizing.\u00a0But it could be a structure quite different from capitalism. That is one alternative.\u00a0That\u2019s the Spirit of Davos.<\/p>\n

The \u201cSpirit of Porta Allegre\u201d is to have a relatively democratic, relatively egalitarian\u00a0system. One could be much worse than the existing system. It is intrinsically\u00a0and principally impossible to predict which of these outcomes will occur.\u00a0The reason is that the outcome is the result of an infinity of actions, by an infinity\u00a0of actors, at an infinity of moments, and an infinity of decisions. This is impossible\u00a0to predict, but what one can say, and this is the positive way of looking at it, is I\u00a0can translate the scientific language to the classical, philosophical language of the\u00a0Western world. This is a situation usually described as the alternative of determinism,\u00a0or free will that has been debated for several thousand years as alternative appreciations\u00a0of how the world operates. I want to historicize it. I want to say that\u00a0when a system operates normally it\u2019s relatively determinist. That is to say, there is\u00a0alot of effort to change things, but the system pushes you back to equilibrium, so\u00a0in a sense, you have very little input. In a chaotic situation, when the system\u00a0breaks down, it\u2019s actually quite the opposite. A little input can yield an enormous\u00a0amount of change. That is the situation of free will and we are in the situation of\u00a0relative free will at the moment. That means that you, I and everyone else affects\u00a0the outcome. People who deal with issues of chaos talk about the butterfly effect.\u00a0The butterfly effect is that the butterfly flaps its wings at one end of the world, and\u00a0at the other end of the world the climate changes as a result of this. One little butterfly\u00a0affects an enormous change at the other end of the world. One has to think of\u00a0all of us as being in every instance a butterfly. In that sense, what we do matters,\u00a0social action matters, because it contributes to the likelihood of positive change;\u00a0but you have to do it with the knowledge that you do not know who wins. You have to be willing to continue to operate and at some point, that is the logic of this system. Enough actions tile it in one direction or the other and we get a new order.Things calm down again, and we\u2019re into a new system. That, metaphorically, is where we will be in 2050.<\/p>\n

Read more on the\u00a0Institute for Social and European Studies website.<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We are sitting here almost 30 years after our first interview in 1981 in Budapest and\u00a0it seems to me that most of your predictions and analyses concerning the change in\u00a0the upcoming world system proved to be right. You forecasted that the world system\u00a0is in a transition phase which would take several decades. 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